In approving the 2025–2027 MTEF/FSP, representatives pegged the exchange rate at N1400 per US dollar, $75 oil benchmark and 2.06 million barrels of production per day.
The House of Representatives has approved the recommendations of its joint committees on finance, national planning, and economic development on the 2025–2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).
The approval came after the committee on supply considered the report presented by Rep. James Abiodun Faleke (APC Lagos), chairman of the joint committee.
The report on the MTEF/FSP retained the federal government’s recommendation of N1400 exchange rate to the US dollar, subject to review in the new year and oil production of 2.06 million barrels of crude per day, and $75 per barrel of crude.
President Bola Tinubu submitted the MTEF/FSP to both chambers of the National Assembly on Tuesday, November 19, 2024. The MTEF/FSP provides parameters for the preparation of the annual budget and projection for the next three years
Minority Leader Kingsley Chinda (PDP, Rivers), Rep. Sada Soli (APC Katsina) and some other members argued that the projected inflation rate was not realistic, while others argued that pegging naira to dollar exchange at N1400 was not realistic and should be raised to N1600 following the current exchange rate.
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Key fiscal projections
According to the report by the joint committee, the approved framework for Nigeria’s economy over the next three years are:
- Oil benchmark: $75 per barrel (2025), $76.2 per barrel (2026), and $75.3 per barrel (2027).
- Oil production: Domestic production is expected to increase from 1.78 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024 to 2.06 mbpd in 2025, 2.10 mbpd in 2026, and 2.35 mbpd in 2027.
- Exchange rate and inflation: The naira is projected to exchange at N1,400/USD, with inflation rates at 15.75%, 14.21%, and 10.04% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate: GDP growth is projected at 4.6% (2025), 4.4% (2026), and 5.5% (2027).
- Federal Government budget for 2025: Total spending: NGN47.9 trillion, Retained revenue: NGN34.82 trillion, New borrowings: NGN9.22 trillion (domestic and foreign), Debt servicing: NGN15.38 trillion Capital expenditure: NGN16.48 trillion and Fiscal deficit: NGN13.08 trillion.
